【键盘侠】字母哥夺MVP概率远超哈登|欧洲人统治联盟？
2019-02-20 10:31:59 来源：CCTV5在线直播
[OC] The MVP race is not as close as you think, according to Basketball-Reference
根据BBR上的MVP概率图，实际上MVP的竞争一点也没有那么激烈。
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[–]not_a_robot2 2933 points 3 days ago
Jokic had that shit locked up for about 3 days.
有那么三天约基奇看起来已经锁定了MVP啊。
[–]Bullsjames-1990 1203 points 3 days ago
We Americans need to get better at soccer fast, cuz these Europeans (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, etc.) are gonna takeover basketball
公牛球迷：我们大美国需要在足球上变得更好了，因为欧洲人已经开始接管篮球比赛了。
[–]SupersonicsKenshiroTheKid 460 points 3 days ago*
Funny enough most big man that are skilled have played soccer at some point in their life (example: the dream, embiid, jokic, etc.
实际上有一点很有意思，很多大个子在他们生命中的某个阶段都踢过足球
[–][TOR] Norman Powellpopegang3hunnah 135 points 3 days ago
Yah thats a great point, feel like it must really help with footwork and coordination
猛龙球迷：是啊，这是一个很棒的点，感觉足球会帮助他们在脚步和协调性。
[–]Warriors4sritwoone 140 points 3 days ago
I think it also helps a lot with visualizing passing lanes and court vision in general
勇士球迷：我觉得足球同样帮助大个子们看清传球路径以及球场视野吧。
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[–]Kaiagin 216 points 3 days ago
Kobe did too growing up in Italy
科比也是哦，他在意大利长大的。
[–]SupersonicsOdolan 247 points 3 days ago
Yeah, but Kobe only 6 ft 6 in, he a midget.
超音速球迷：是的，但是科比才1.98米，不过是个小矮子罢了。
[–]NBABramvdw 169 points 3 days ago
Not want to be elitist but soccer could actually improve vision a lot.
不想杠精，但是足球确实可以提升球场视野。
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[–]PistonsASpartanLeopard 688 points 3 days ago
Wow that's pretty interesting.
活塞球迷：哇哦，这有点有趣哦。
[–]Bucksteotsi 2462 points 3 days ago*
It also feels important to point out how BBREF adjusted their algorithm after Russ won it to decrease the effect team record has(it still matters).
Giannis is posting MVP+DPOY numbers.
雄鹿球迷：还有一点需要指出的是，BBREF在威少赢得MVP之后调整了他们的算法，降低了战绩在算法里的权重
字母哥就是MVP+DPOY的大热门。
[–]ThunderLordFlackoThePretty 932 points 3 days ago
That makes sense though right? They should be adjusting the algorithm based on actual results.
雷霆球迷：这是有意义的，不是嘛？他们要根据实际情况来调整算法啊。
[–]Bucksteotsi 617 points 3 days ago*
Of course. I just pointed it out before people started saying "It's only because of Giannis' record". Even though Russ was an exception, he proved that historic numbers do matter, helping Harden's campaign this year. Even so, Giannis is well ahead in this particular ladder.
雄鹿球迷：当然，我指出这一点就是要在那些说“只是因为字母哥战绩好”的人之前堵住他们的嘴，即使威少是个例外，但是他依然证明了历史级别的数据是有用的，这也是帮助哈登本赛季有竞争力的原因，即使如此，字母哥在MVP竞争榜上遥遥领先。
[–]Bucksahrzal 236 points 3 days ago
The discussion around Giannis and people trying to minimize his campaign this year is crazy to me. In past years it was "Giannis is the future" or "MVP next year." Now that it's happening, a lot of people are trying to downplay his performance and lift up Harden or PG as much as they can. It's baffling.
雄鹿球迷：在字母哥以及那些尝试缩小他本赛季竞争MVP可能性的人们之间的讨论真是让我惊了。过去人们都会说“字母哥就是未来”、“他下个赛季就是MVP”，现在一切都发生了，但是很多人都开始贬低他的表现以及拔高哈登和乔治的表现，真的难受。
[–]Thunderjocro 92 points 3 days ago
I'm kinda surprised he doesn't get talked about in DPOY conversations as much.
I love George and think he's deserving, but Giannis's ability to both guard the perimeter and protect the rim is pretty unique this season, and it shows up in the results (best defense in the league).
雷霆球迷：有一点我还是很震惊的，那就是为啥他没有进入DPOY的讨论之中。
我很爱乔治，当然乔治也值得一个MVP，但是字母哥既能防守外线又能保护篮筐的能力本赛季真的非常独特，而且球队也确实有所成效
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[–]ClippersDeja-View 329 points 3 days ago
Imagine telling someone in 2014 that the 41st pick would be in the top 5 MVP candidates in his 4th season.
快船球迷：想象一下，2014年告诉你今年41顺位的新秀会在4年后MVP排行榜中位列前五你会相信嘛？
[–]Knicksbdams19 390 points 3 days ago
seems like a very specific thing to imagine
尼克斯球迷：想象起来真的是特殊的事情啊。
[–]BullsPotkukelkkaJames 497 points 3 days ago
In the end it's down to the opinion of a 100 journalists, so grude numbers can't take into account that human factor. Harden won it already, and that for one is a thing that will no doubt affect some of the voters.
But they'd be idiots not to choose Giannis. As much as I'd like that to be PG because after that injury to get back to that level... wow.
公牛球迷：最终这还是要靠100名记者的意见，所以BBR并不可能考虑到这一人为因素，哈登已经赢过一次MVP了，这毫无疑问会影响到他的一些票数。
但是如果不选字母哥毫无疑问也是非常愚蠢的，当然我很爱乔治，因为他在伤病之后还能回归这样的级别……哇哦。
[–]PacersThe_One_X 174 points 3 days ago
The human factor is a lot easier to quantify than most people believe.
步行者球迷：实际上人为因素很多情况下会颠覆很多人的认知。
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[–]CelticsAutoslamtronic 315 points 3 days ago
Compare it to Vegas odds, though, and you have a different story. James Harden is strongly favored in Vegas to win the MVP this year.
凯尔特人球迷：相较于拉斯维加斯的赔率完全不一样啊，哈登在拉斯维加斯那个排行榜里是要赢得MVP的。
[–]Mavericksrustyphish 411 points 3 days ago*
This is what I don't get. I mean, I get that Giannis is good, but it's like this entire thread doesn't realize harden is putting up 37-8-7 while his two best teammates have been hurt lol
Edit: only gold ever earned for trashing Harden, now I get my only silver for defending him lol
独行侠球迷：这就是我不能理解的地方啊，我觉得字母哥确实很棒，但是整个帖子似乎都没意识到哈登在两个队友都受伤的情况下打出了37+8+7的数据啊。
编辑：哎，骂哈登就是拿金币，为他说话只能的银币。
[–]LakersJohn_Winchester 110 points 3 days ago
Harden is putting up no doubt MVP numbers, offensively. Giannis is putting up MVP numbers while also being one of if not the best defender in the league, and leading his team to the best record in the league. Defensive win shares isn't a perfect stat (like every other stat out there), but Giannis leads the league @ 0.188, while Harden is 191st w/ 0.074.
湖人球迷：哈登毫无疑问拿到MVP级别的数据，在进攻级别上尤为如此。字母哥不仅拿到了MVP级别的数据，而且在防守上也有一定话语权，并且自己的球队在联盟里拿到了最佳战绩。尽管防守赢球贡献值不是一个完美的数据，但是字母哥引领联盟的0.188要比哈登的排名191的0.074好得多。
[–]Mavericksrustyphish 77 points 3 days ago
Shockingly, the voters do not care about defense nearly as much. I mean, we live in a world where Rudy Gobert isn't an all star so I think it's a little overly optimistic to think a ton of voters are going to hang their hat on defensive win shares
独行侠球迷：很震惊，支持者根本不关心放手啊，我们现在这个世界戈贝尔都进步了全明星，所以我觉得大家在防守赢球贡献值这个方面还是过于乐观了。
[–]JazzMikkkey 213 points 3 days ago
Harden out here averaging 6.7 rebounds/7.7 assists/36.6 points with 2 steals and a block but has less than a 20% chance to win MVP? Whack
爵士球迷：哈登场均36.6分6.7篮板7.7助攻还有2个抢断1个盖帽竟然只有20%不到的几率赢得MVP？
[–]RocketsPro_phet 131 points 3 days ago
I think youre the only Jazz fan to ever say something like that
火箭球迷：我觉得全天下只有你一个爵士粉丝会支持哈登吧。
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[–]dogeblessUSA 186 points 3 days ago
giannis MVP is starting to get some steam right now and with CP3 back harden will probably slow down...if bucks finish with best record giannis will win mvp 100%
字母哥的MVP之路已经一片开阔，而随着保罗回归哈登可能会放缓他的脚步……如果雄鹿能拿到最佳战绩字母哥百分之百就是MVP啊。
[–]CelticsConor27 336 points 3 days ago
"starting to get some steam right now" bruh he's been a top two MVP candidate all year lol
凯尔特人球迷：“现在MVP道路一片开阔”哈哈哈，但是他一整年都是MVP候选人啊。
[–][CLE] Cedi Osmanllewellynjean[S] 337 points 3 days ago
Here's a static version for those that prefer non-animated charts.
Full disclosure: Durant currently has a higher probability than PG to win MVP. And Kawhi currently has an equal chance to PG. But I left those two out because the conventional wisdom is that as of now its really just between Giannis, Harden, Jokic, and PG13.
骑士球迷：这是那张图的静态版本。
总得来说：杜兰特现在比保罗-乔治赢得MVP的概率还要大，莱昂纳德现在和乔治有着同样的机会，但是我把莱昂纳德和杜兰特摘出去因为现在主要能进入MVP讨论的只有字母哥、哈登、约基奇以及乔治。
[–]nowhathappenedwas 160 points 3 days ago
And Kawhi currently has an equal chance to PG.
This is because the tracker only looks at four things: team wins, PPG, RPG, and APG. It doesn't care that Kawhi has missed a bunch of games or that the Raptors are 13-3 without him.
“莱昂纳德现在和有乔治一样的夺得MVP的概率。”
这是因为人们看MVP只看球队赢球数、场均得分、场均助攻、场均篮板，他们不在意莱昂纳德缺阵了那么多场比赛，而猛龙在他缺席的时候不过13胜3负。
来源：Reddit
编译：海上生明月